Archive for the ‘Polls’ Category

Montanans don’t want Hillary Clinton

July 2, 2007

Here is shocker: Montanans are not big fans of Hillary. With the exception of all the Hollywood types moving in, Montana has always struck me as a state with reasonable people. Polls have now back me up:

Montana voters would most likely vote for Republican John McCain for president next year, and they are least likely to support Democrat Hillary Clinton, a new Gazette State Poll shows.

The poll, taken June 25-27, didn’t break voters into political parties. Instead, it asked all 625 people surveyed if they would or would not consider voting for each of 13 different announced or likely presidential candidates if those candidates are the nominees of their respective political party. The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus four percentage points.

[. . .]

“Montana voters have an open mind on supporting Democrats for president, but they aren’t going to have an open mind when it comes to Hillary Clinton,” Coker said. “For Hillary Clinton to win Montana, she needs a Ross Perot.”

This would be good news for McCain and bad news for Hillary except that Montana simply doesn’t loom that large in either the primary or general election. But they are still wise to distrust Hillary.


Hillary Losing The Push?

July 2, 2007

Obama Takes Lead In Money Raised, Pressure on Clinton Is Expected to Grow


It seems that the WaPo is pleased that Obama is doing better and getting better at raising funds than Hillary is. I am too. It will malke it that much easier to trounce the DNC in 2008.

Sen. Barack Obama raised $31 million for his presidential primary campaign over the past three months, surging past Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton‘s fundraising machine by nearly $10 million for the quarter to take the lead in contributions in the crowded Democratic field.

Obama became the first Democrat to surpass $30 million in a quarter during a non-election year, a feat his campaign said was accomplished not just with help from wealthy, traditional donors but also with a strong showing among small contributors.

I wonder how many poor and indigent could be helped by all these millions being raised by the party claiming to be for the underdogs.

Edwards, the man that has difficulty defining what a rich man is, might as well pack it in and go home.  He can drown his sorrows in his mansion.

Although thrilled by the financial performance, Obama’s campaign yesterday sought to temper expectations with a note to supporters predicting that the candidate is unlikely to overtake Clinton in the polls before the Iowa caucuses early next year.

“One of our opponents is also the quasi-incumbent in the race, who in our belief will and should lead just about every national poll from now until the Iowa caucuses. Expect nothing different and attach no significance to it,” campaign manager David Plouffe wrote.

I find it interesting that the polls reveal that Hillary is ahead (in what is still to be seen) but lags in fund raising.  Something is amiss .

Could it be a Vast Right Wing Conspiracy?

Oh.  Wait.  Bill (Cigar-Boy) Clinton will come to the rescue.

Quinnipiac Poll Numbers in Swing States

June 27, 2007

A new set of polls brings good and bad news for Hillary:

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is losing ground in the 2008 general election and Republican primaries in three critical states – Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University’s Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.

Head to head match-ups show:

* Ohio – Clinton ties Giuliani 43 – 43 percent, compared to May 16 when Giuliani led
47 – 43 percent;
* Florida – Giuliani beats Clinton 48 – 42 percent, compared to a 47 – 42 percent Giuliani
lead June 7;
* Pennsylvania – Giuliani and Clinton are tied 45 – 45 percent, compared to a 47 – 43
percent Giuliani lead May 31.

As has been frequently noted, however, Hillary’s negatives are high enough to put a cap on her numbers. It seems likely that these numbers reflect Giuliani’s drooping more than any Hillary gain. Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, notes that this may not mean much in the primary but it will have an impact in the general election:

“Sen. Clinton’s numbers are as reliable as a Swiss watch. Her support and lead remain rock solid among the Democrats in these key states.”

“If Sen. Obama is catching Clinton in the primary contest, there is no evidence of it in Florida and Ohio. But in November, the large number of non-Democrats who view her negatively keeps a cap on her showing against Republicans,” Brown added.

Obama On The Move

June 22, 2007

Barak had better be careful about gaining and passing up on Hillary.  She just might get angry.  And if you want to now what that entails,  just ask Bill!

A new poll of likely Democratic voters shows presidential candidate Barack Obama leading the Democratic field in South Carolina. The same poll shows South Carolina native John Edwards struggling as the January 29, 2008, primary in the Palmetto State approaches.

A new poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research indicates 34 percent of the 329 likely Democratic presidential primary voters polled in South Carolina back Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois). Senator Hillary Clinton (D-New York) is second with 25 percent, and former North Carolina senator and 2004 vice-presidential candidate John Edwards a fairly distant third at 12 percent. All the other candidates, including former vice president Al Gore, were in very low single digits.

Straw Polls For Dummies

June 20, 2007


We Have The Pods…Seen The Peas?

June 19, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa – In a first, former President Clinton will campaign with his wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, in Iowa next month, seeking to boost her candidacy in a state where she trails in the polls.

The former president will spend July 2-4 in Iowa with Sen. Clinton.

“The schedule is still being worked out, but it is the first time he’s joined the campaign,” said spokesman Mark Daley.

Perhaps this is the only way Hillary can get Billary to “keep it zipped“?

Does Hillary Have A Woman Problem?

June 16, 2007

Interesting question. It all depends on your point of view. If you are a fem-nazi, the answer is an overwhelming yes. If you aren’t a fem-nazi, the spread is muddied. It is also dependant upon who is doing the asking and who is doing the reporting.

I did a totally unscientific and undocumented and personal “poll”. I asked five women, two of which I know personally, one of them being my wife, the following question; “With what you know at this very moment about Hillary Rodham Clinton, would you vote for Hillary for the President of The United States?


1. Woman #1…Spouse…”You have GOT to be kidding!”

I took that as a no.

2. Woman #2…friend of spouse…”That is a really stupid question. I wouldn’t vote for that poli-tramp if she was the second to the last woman in the world!”

Another no.

3. Woman #3…me Mum…”You should be bloody well ashamed of asking such nonsense. Cods wallop!” (accompanied by the Evil Eye only mums can emit.)

Another no.

4. Woman #4…in line at the local Kroger…”Who the hell are you and what do you want?” (accompanied by a panicked deer-in-the-headlight gaze.)

An undecided?

5. Woman #5…at the post office…a pleasant smile, a gleam in the eye and the head cocked to one side, the gum chewing had stopped. There was no answer. (she was a blond.)

A yes?

My poll of 5 women revealed that 3 out of 5 say no, 1 gets paranoid and 1 stops chewing gum and gets a glazed look.

Theoretically, there is a more scientific poll here:

Least Liked Candidate…Hillary

June 14, 2007

From CNN:

Does likeability matter for a presidential candidate?

It may not be the determining factor, but likeability does matter.

Hillary Clinton is now the frontrunner among New Hampshire Democrats. But when Democrats were asked which candidate they find most likeable, Clinton came in third, behind Barack Obama and John Edwards.

H/t: Amanda Carpenter

Hillary’s Achilles Heel

June 13, 2007

Nice post over at Real Clear Politics on the danger Hillary’s high unfavorables present to her campaign:

In general election matchups versus the top tier Republicans, Clinton now regularly underperforms Obama. The question then becomes whether a Democratic electorate that is desperate for a Presidential win after two excruciatingly close election losses will begin to care more about Clinton’s underperformance in the general election polls.

[. . .]

This all comes back to Hillary Clinton’s extremely high unfavorables. If these head-to-head matchups with the leading GOP candidates continue to show Senator Obama or other Democratic candidates running significantly better in the general election, it could have a significant impact on Democratic primary voters who are in no mood for another bitter disappointment next November.

Read the whole post to get the LA Times Poll details.

Hillary Struggling to Top GOP Stragglers

May 31, 2007

Here is a headline that has to give Hillary nightmares: Clinton Holds Single-Digit Leads Over Huckabee, Brownback. That’s gotta hurt.

The Rasmussen report also contains this little nugget (which we have touched on before):

However, in general election match-ups, she typically is outperformed by Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D). That’s largely because voters have such strong opinions—one way or the other—about the former First Lady. Forty-seven percent (47%) of American voters say they will definitely vote against Clinton if she’s on the ballot in 2008.

Hillary Clinton is now viewed favorably by 49% of likely voters, unfavorably by 51%. That includes 22% with a Very Favorable opinion and 35% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Maybe Hillary’s charm offensive isn’t working out so well? Maybe people aren’t exactly thrilled about her new economic plan? If she is struggling to out poll two GOP candidates with low name recognition and high negatives she isn’t the juggernaut many believe her to be.